Industrial real estate market intelligence
The Davis Industrial Report
Fall & Winter 2026
Current industrial real estate conditions in Western North Carolina, the Carolinas and the United States, with a perspective on the year ahead.
Industrial real estate is inherently local, but decisions made in Western North Carolina are increasingly shaped by activity across the Carolinas and the nation. This Fall & Winter 2026 edition examines supply, vacancy, asking rents, demand and transaction trends across these connected markets. It concludes with a forward-looking perspective on the forces likely to shape industrial real estate in 2027.
Inside this edition
- Asheville & Western North Carolina: Local vacancy, rents, supply, industrial property types, submarkets and transaction activity.
- The Carolinas: Industrial conditions across Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, the Triad, Greenville-Spartanburg, Charleston and Columbia.
- The United States: National demand, construction, bulk distribution and investment trends.
- 2027 Outlook: Jim Davis’s perspective on financing, building quality and market-specific opportunities.
By Jim Davis, SIOR | NAI Beverly-Hanks Commercial
Free download | 21 pages | PDF, approximately 2.8 MB
Prefer to read online? The full report follows below.
01 / Regional market conditions
Asheville & Western North Carolina
The local industrial picture as of October 2026
Occupancy has reset
Asheville's industrial vacancy increased from 2.9% at year-end 2025 to 5.6% in the October 2026 snapshot. CoStar records approximately 1.06 million SF of negative net absorption over the trailing 12 months, despite no new deliveries. The movement reflects occupancy losses within existing buildings rather than a recent wave of completed new supply. Total availability, which includes vacant and marketed occupied space, stands at 8.6%.
Rental pricing remains firm
Pricing has held firmer than occupancy. CoStar's average market asking rent is $10.63/SF annually, with 4.1% year-over-year growth. The average varies substantially by product: $9.26 for logistics, $11.08 for specialized industrial, and $15.03 for flex. These are CoStar asking-rent estimates, not signed lease rates. Uneven conditions across submarkets reinforce the importance of analyzing the individual property and its specific competitive set.
Supply, demand & rents
The report’s historical charts compare year-end 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 with the October 2026 snapshot. Vacancy remained near 3% through those year-end observations, rising through 2024, easing in 2025 and then increasing sharply to 5.6% in October 2026. Annual market asking rents increased at each observation from 2022 through October 2026, reaching $10.63/SF.
Current fundamentals by industrial type
| Industrial type | Inventory | Vacancy | Asking rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logistics | 21.68M SF | 5.4% | $9.26/SF |
| Specialized | 9.76M SF | 4.1% | $11.08/SF |
| Flex | 6.10M SF | 8.8% | $15.03/SF |
CoStar modeled market asking rents; not executed lease rates.
Industrial construction in progress
- 1.05M SF under construction
- 8 active properties
- 22.8% of space preleased
Approximately 1.03M SF of the active construction pipeline is in Henderson County.
Submarkets & transactions
A geographically varied market, viewed through two different reporting areas.
Largest CoStar industrial submarkets
| Submarket | Inventory | Vacancy | Asking rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Henderson County | 12.62M SF | 8.5% | $9.77/SF |
| Buncombe County | 10.75M SF | 5.8% | $10.41/SF |
| South Asheville / Royal Pines | 5.87M SF | 1.5% | $11.33/SF |
| Central Asheville | 3.90M SF | 1.0% | $12.38/SF |
| West Asheville | 3.15M SF | 8.7% | $11.27/SF |
Vacancy varies sharply, from 1.0% in Central Asheville and 1.5% in South Asheville / Royal Pines to 8.5% in the Henderson County submarket and 8.7% in West Asheville. These are CoStar submarket definitions, not totals for the corresponding counties.
NAI / Nine-county Q3 2026
6.1% industrial vacancy | 7 leases
6 industrial sales totaling $6.3M
CoStar / Asheville, 12 months
$72M | 50 industrial properties sold
Approximately 850,000 SF of turnover
Different geographies and periods: the two activity summaries are not directly comparable.
02 / Regional market conditions
The Carolinas
North Carolina and South Carolina | Third Quarter 2026
One region. Distinct market cycles.
Industrial demand remains active across the Carolinas, but vacancy varies considerably by metro. Occupier expansion can coexist with rising vacancy when new construction delivers faster than tenants move in.
Charlotte and the Triangle are absorbing large logistics pipelines. The Upstate retains a manufacturing-oriented base, while Charleston is digesting recent bulk deliveries. Modern, power-ready buildings compete differently from aging industrial stock.
Industrial vacancy by metro
| Metro | Q3 2026 reported vacancy |
|---|---|
| Columbia, SC* | 4.7% |
| Greensboro / Winston-Salem | 5.5% |
| Charlotte, NC / SC | 7.8% |
| Greenville / Spartanburg | 8.5% |
| Raleigh / Durham | 9.5% |
| Charleston | 12.9% |
*Columbia: Colliers. Other markets: Cushman & Wakefield. Rates reflect each firm's defined survey universe.
The North Carolina markets
Charlotte / Raleigh-Durham / Greensboro-Winston-Salem
Charlotte
7.8% overall vacancy | Q3 absorption: more than 650,000 SF
Charlotte posted more than 650,000 SF of Q3 net absorption, yet vacancy edged higher as approximately 1.9M SF of new product delivered, 91.4% of it vacant at completion. New leasing approached 2.5M SF in the quarter. Average asking rent was $8.60/SF.
Raleigh / Durham
9.5% overall vacancy | Q3 absorption: more than 1.1M SF
Q3 net absorption exceeded 1.1M SF and nearly 1.2M SF delivered. The market has completed more than 3.9M SF year to date, while 6.0M SF remained under construction. Asking rent reached $11.33/SF, reflecting substantial new, higher-quality inventory.
The Triad
5.5% overall vacancy | Q3 absorption: approximately 230,000 SF
Greensboro-Winston-Salem recorded nearly 230,000 SF of Q3 net absorption and 1.4M SF year to date. More than 500,000 SF delivered during Q3, with only 25.4% vacant on completion. Asking rent averaged $6.37/SF, the lowest of these three NC metros.
The South Carolina markets
Greenville-Spartanburg / Charleston / Columbia
Greenville / Spartanburg
8.5% overall vacancy | Q3 absorption: approximately 646,000 SF
The Upstate recorded nearly 646,000 SF of Q3 net absorption, its eighth consecutive quarter of occupancy gains. Direct vacancy was 7.1%, versus 8.5% overall including sublease space. New leasing approached 1.8M SF; direct asking rent was $6.03/SF.
Charleston
12.9% overall vacancy | Q3 new leasing: more than 1.2M SF
Vacancy remained elevated despite more than 1.4M SF of year-to-date occupancy gains. Q3 new leasing topped 1.2M SF, and more than 937,000 SF of leased space awaited move-ins. The port-linked market posted an average asking rent of $8.24/SF.
Columbia
4.7% overall vacancy | Class A vacancy: 2.8%
Colliers reports a 113-basis-point quarterly decline in vacancy and 1.6M SF of gross absorption. Class A vacancy was just 2.8%; nearly 792,000 SF of net absorption occurred in Class B properties. Five speculative projects totaling 1.1M SF broke ground in Q3.
03 / National market conditions
United States
Demand outpaces supply | Q3 2026
Occupier demand has reaccelerated
Cushman & Wakefield recorded 76.6 million SF of third-quarter net absorption, the strongest quarterly total since early 2023. Demand exceeded deliveries for a second consecutive quarter. National vacancy finished at 6.8%, below its late-2025 level.
The improvement has not erased differences in building quality. Newer logistics space continues to capture demand, while older industrial properties face more variable occupancy. The 324 million SF active pipeline marks a renewed rise in construction activity.
Net demand vs. new space / Q3: 76.6M SF absorbed compared with 64M SF delivered.
A different big-box market
Bulk distribution | Buildings of 200,000 SF and larger | CoStar, Q2 2026
| Building segment | Vacancy | Annual asking rent |
|---|---|---|
| Bulk / 200,000+ SF | 9.6% | $8.50/SF |
| Smaller / under 200,000 SF | 6.3% | $11.41/SF |
Vacancy and CoStar modeled annual asking rents per SF as of Q2 2026.
The functional divide
CoStar defines bulk distribution as warehouse and distribution buildings of at least 200,000 SF. Its Q2 snapshot shows a 9.6% bulk vacancy rate, substantially above the 6.3% rate for smaller buildings. This is a narrower segment than all-industrial surveys.
Across the trailing 12 months, bulk properties recorded 206M SF of net absorption against 175M SF of deliveries. CoStar also reported 574M SF leased over that period. Occupancy gains remained concentrated in newer, high-clear-height assets, while many older facilities continued to lose tenants.
Markets driving demand
National industrial demand and investment | 2026 year to date
Leaders in net absorption
2026 YTD | Millions of SF
- Dallas-Fort Worth: 23.6M SF
- Houston: 18.1M SF
- Atlanta: 13.6M SF
Largest construction pipelines
Q3 end | Millions of SF
- Dallas-Fort Worth: 34.4M SF
- Phoenix: 20.5M SF
- Houston: 18.4M SF
Investment and building quality
CBRE places Dallas-Fort Worth first for 2026 year-to-date absorption at 23.6M SF, followed by Houston and Atlanta. Those markets also illustrate the inland distribution network's scale. Local vacancy and absorption remain specific to each research universe.
JLL reports $95.3B of preliminary U.S. industrial investment volume through Q3, 38% above the comparable 2025 period. Its national industrial cap-rate measure held at 5.42%. The figure is not interchangeable with CoStar's separate bulk-building sales and cap-rate estimates.
CBRE Q3 2026 / U.S. asking rent: $11.16/SF, up 3.6% year over year.
04 / The year ahead
2027 Industrial Outlook
Asheville & Western North Carolina
Resilient demand. Limited choices. More selective pricing.
Quality will set the pace
Western North Carolina enters 2027 with an industrial market that I expect to remain fundamentally strong, even as transaction activity becomes more discerning. Limited inventory of well-located, functional properties should continue to support values and lease rates, but scarcity alone will not justify every asking price.
The financing factor
Interest rates and borrowing costs will continue to influence what buyers can pay, particularly for owner-user acquisitions and leveraged investments. I expect more sellers to adjust pricing and soften expectations as they respond to the gap between asking prices and today’s financing realities.
Execution over optimism
Deals will still get done. The most marketable assets should be those with strong access, practical layouts, useful loading, dependable infrastructure and credible pricing. Properties with functional limitations or ambitious price expectations may require more time and more deliberate negotiation.
“The best-quality industrial properties, priced correctly, will continue to find buyers in 2027.”
Jim Davis, SIOR / Local broker perspective
North & South Carolina
Multiple industrial economies, moving at different speeds.
Selective growth in an uneven market
The Carolinas should remain attractive to industrial occupiers in 2027 because of their highway networks, port connections and diverse manufacturing base. Yet the region should not be treated as one uniform leasing market. The amount of recently delivered space, building configuration and depth of local demand will matter more than a broad statewide growth narrative.
The larger metros
In Charlotte and the Research Triangle, a more measured development environment could help absorb recently completed speculative space. Well-connected Class A logistics buildings should compete for distribution demand, while locations with concentrated vacancy may continue offering concessions and longer lease-up periods.
Manufacturing corridors
The Piedmont Triad, Upstate South Carolina and Columbia may benefit from specialized manufacturing, supplier networks and occupiers seeking cost-efficient facilities. Power, workforce availability, site readiness and building functionality will increasingly separate competitive opportunities from less adaptable space.
Coastal markets require patience
Charleston’s recent wave of large-scale supply will take time to lease fully, even as port-related and logistics demand remains an important source of activity. For the region overall, expect a year defined by location-specific opportunities, disciplined underwriting and greater scrutiny of the exact asset being offered.
United States
A healthier demand picture, with discipline still required.
A market of winners and laggards
The U.S. industrial sector appears positioned to enter 2027 on firmer footing than the period immediately following its post-pandemic construction surge. Leasing and absorption improved during 2026, but a substantial pipeline of projects remains. The pace at which space is occupied will differ widely by metro, building age and size.
Supply meets demand
Where new deliveries have outpaced leasing, tenants should retain negotiating leverage through 2027. Markets with stronger take-up and a reduced speculative pipeline could see vacancy tighten. New construction should remain sensitive to preleasing, development costs and debt availability.
A wider quality gap
Modern clear heights, dock packages, energy capacity, automation readiness and efficient locations will remain important advantages. Older distribution buildings may require upgrades or sharper pricing to compete. Manufacturing demand can provide opportunity, but utility timelines may delay occupancy.
The 2027 investment test
Returns will depend on disciplined pricing, rent assumptions and real tenant demand. Easier financing could support activity, but underwriting should not depend on interest-rate relief.
Professional expertise
What it means to hire an SIOR
For over 80 years, the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors (SIOR) has set the global standard for excellence in commercial real estate brokerage. Founded in 1940 to advance professionalism and expertise in industrial real estate, later expanding to include office markets, SIOR has grown into the most respected international association of commercial practitioners. From its early role aiding industrial placement efforts in World War II to its current status as the gold-standard credential in industrial and office brokerage, the SIOR designation signals a deep commitment to experience, ethics, and elite performance. Earning this designation isn’t easy: only a small fraction of brokers worldwide ever qualify, with roughly 3,300 SIOR designees historically across 50+ countries, underscoring just how rare and prestigious this achievement truly is.
Choosing to work with an SIOR means partnering with someone who has met rigorous production, education, ethical, and peer-endorsement standards that far exceed basic real estate licensing requirements. SIOR professionals are acknowledged by corporate real estate leaders, lenders, investors, and fellow brokers as top-tier experts who consistently deliver superior strategic insight, negotiation skill, and market execution. Their affiliation provides clients with access not just to a local market mastery, but to an exclusive global network of elite CRE advisors, enhancing opportunities across markets and asset types. In today’s competitive and complex commercial property landscape, hiring an SIOR isn’t just a choice, it’s a strategic advantage that elevates the quality, integrity, and success of your real estate outcomes.
Acquire / Dispose / Lease
Questions? Comments? Plans?
Let’s talk. I’m all ears.
Market insight. Deal execution.
Questions about this report or a property opportunity? I welcome the conversation. I would be honored to represent you in a commercial real estate acquisition, disposition or leasing assignment.
Jim Davis, SIOR
Commercial Real Estate Broker
NAI Beverly-Hanks Commercial
Mobile: (330) 718-3311
Email: jdavis@naibeverly-hanks.com
Website: AshevilleCRE.com
Office: (828) 210-3940
300 Executive Park, Asheville, NC 28801
Thank you for reading.